Turkey will hold a pivotal presidential election on May 14, just months before the Turkish Republic celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding. After two decades of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu stands a strong chance at the polls. In this piece, we assess how voters will weigh their choices in the context of Turkey’s economic woes and national security challenges, and what this means for international investors.
The New York Times ran a piece featuring insights from Mitch Hayes, a director at Veracity, on Honduras aligning with China, thereby severing ties with Taiwan. An expert on China's relations with Latin America, Mitch notes that while Honduras's decision might upset Washington, it could be seen as a rational move for an emerging economy such as Honduras.
Veracity director Mitch Hayes was invited to share his analysis of Honduras' break with Taiwan, in a round-up of thought leadership on the issue for the Inter-American Dialogue. Mitch joins academics and analysts in this overview captures the motivations and implications of Honduras's move. Mitch suggests that "President Xiomara Castro's bargain may sacrifice long-term sovereignty for short-term political gain.”
In this interview, conducted in English and French with the current affairs broadcaster Radio France Internationale, Veracity Worldwide CEO Jay Truesdale discusses rising Russian aspirations in the African mining sector. He notes that Russia often concentrates on poorly-governed countries where it has historical ties, and that certain target minerals have important applications for Russian military production and national security.
In this piece, we address the key challenges facing Nigeria's incoming president. After Bola Tinubu was declared the winner of the vote, the media largely focused on the horserace of the election. We instead take a close look at the next president's enormously complex agenda: to arrest economic decline, address root causes of insecurity, and eradicate endemic corruption. This will be vital to improving the lives of millions of Nigerians and making the country more attractive to foreign investors.
At the 2023 African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, the largest of its kind in the world, political leaders and top executives described a rapidly changing global environment that has made mining operations increasingly difficult, with no jurisdiction, particularly on the African continent, devoid of risk. Miners discussed how they are expanding into new or unfamiliar geographies, driven by the need to sate growing appetites for raw materials necessary for the green energy transition.
At this year’s Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town, Veracity CEO Jay Truesdale gave a main-stage speech on how global firms, namely mining companies, are incorporating an awareness of geopolitical risk and national interests as they develop corporate strategies. He cited two main drivers: the protracted war in Ukraine, and competition between China and the Global West. Jay's speech received media coverage from Voice of America and South Africa’s Daily Maverick.
In this Voice of America article by China-Africa correspondent Kate Bartlett, Veracity Worldwide CEO Jay Truesdale comments on the geopolitical implications of the race for rare earth metals in Africa. He notes that “dependency on China for rare earths is viewed with alarm” as it could allow Beijing to “cripple non-Chinese manufacturers” in key sectors including electronics, automotive manufacturing, aerospace, and renewable energy.
In this Daily Maverick piece by foreign affairs reporter Peter Fabricius, Veracity Worldwide CEO Jay Truesdale highlights the risks rising tensions between China and the West pose to companies. Jay notes that companies will struggle to avoid picking a side on Russia’s war against Ukraine, and that they must appreciate "the implications of taking a stand" if relations between global powers deteriorate further.
The CSIS Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Commission, whose members include Co-Chair and Veracity Senior Advisor Ambassador Paula Dobriansky and CEO Jay Truesdale, published the results of collaborative research among senior US, G7, and Ukrainian representatives from the private sector, government, and NGOs. The report provides a framework for reconstruction, acknowledging that foreign aid is necessary but insufficient for the task, and highlights the critical role of private investment.
In this The Daily Beast piece by national security reporter Shannon Vavra, Veracity Worldwide CEO Jay Truesdale provides extensive insight and analysis on why alleged Ukrainian attacks should be seen as distinct from those by Russia against Ukraine. Jay notes that while Russia has targeted civilians and cities, Ukraine has fought in self-defense and targeted only military or dual-use facilities, suggesting that Ukraine is seeking to fight a "more just" war than Russia.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy will visit Washington next week as part of the US-Africa Leaders Summit. Veracity Worldwide's Jay Truesdale, Olivia Johnson, Nandita Balakrishnan, PhD, and Corentin d'Ansembourg outline the investment opportunities Abiy is likely to emphasize in Washington, as well as attendant risks for investors.
President-elect Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva will face ongoing challenges addressing a Bolsonaro-led opposition movement and a slowing economy, while making trade-offs with Congress and the military. Veracity Worldwide’s Jay Truesdale, Mitch Hayes, Eric Cuevas, and Nandita Balakrishnan, PhD project that Lula could face pressure to adopt moderate positions, potentially derailing his bold agenda and disappointing supporters.
Veracity’s CEO Jay Truesdale spoke with the The Wall Street Journal on the impact for businesses of Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva's victory in Brazil’s presidential election. He stated that the new government needs to provide clarity on its economic strategy to reassure investors, both from abroad and within Brazil. Truesdale told the Journal that he expects agribusiness, timber, and mining, which received favorable treatment under Bolsonaro, to face particular increased scrutiny under Lula's new administration.
In this Financial Times feature on ESG in emerging markets, Veracity Worldwide managing director Benjamin Weiss stressed the need for tailored on-the-ground insight to assess whether an investment meets commitments on labor practices and diversity issues. "Local considerations around those things are very different from one place to the next," he told the FT, so it is important to conduct thorough research when working in emerging markets.